Analysis-From international outcast to mediator in Iran war, Pakistan's remarkable makeover

By Saad Sayeed

April 2 (Reuters) - A diplomatic outcast a year ago, Pakistan has become a trusted regional partner and a mediator between the U.S. and Iran to end the war in the Middle East, a remarkable transformation for the South Asian nation driven mostly by its powerful military chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir.

Munir has had several meetings with President Donald Trump, including an unprecedented one-on-one lunch at the White House, while the government has apprehended an Islamic State bomber accused of killing American troops and handed him over to the U.S.

In other moves to restore the Islamic nation's credibility, its diplomats have launched a sweeping outreach programme with world leaders, while consolidating ties with principal ally China.

"Pakistan's civil-military leadership has been on a charm offensive primarily balancing relations between the U.S. and China as it seeks to employ a diversified foreign policy," Arsla Jawaid, global risk analyst at Control Risks, told Reuters.

"All these efforts are beginning to show some signs of success."

Since Osama bin Laden was killed by U.S. Navy SEALs in Pakistan in 2011, ties with the U.S. and the West had plunged. The jailing of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and accusations from Washington that Pakistan was supporting the Taliban behind the scenes during the 20-year Afghan war only made things worse.

On the economic front, Pakistan was perilously close to a debt default, until a new deal with the IMF was reached after tough negotiations about 18 months ago.

Analysts and government officials cite two turning points in Pakistan rebuilding trust with Washington.

The first breakthrough came in March last year, when Pakistan helped capture a suspect linked to the 2021 Kabul airport bombing in which 170 Afghans and 13 U.S. soldiers were killed, prompting public thanks from Trump and renewed intelligence sharing.

Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistan ambassador to the U.S., said the cooperation was "critical" in reversing decades of mistrust.

In May, a clash with old enemy India reinforced the shift.

Foreign office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi said the 90-hour conflict provided a massive boost to Pakistan's diplomatic credentials because the country's "military leadership showed tremendous restraint after successfully downing Indian fighter jets".

Pakistan was quick to engage the U.S. in efforts to end the conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours, and both Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif later nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

LEVERS OF POWER

Even when democratic governments have been in power in Pakistan, the military has controlled the levers of power, making Munir's approval essential for any government policy.

His visit to the White House, the first time a sitting U.S. president had received Pakistan's military chief without civilian leadership present, signalled that Trump recognised Pakistan's internal power structure.

Pakistan's military did not respond to a request for comment on this story. Government officials have said the country's makeover has been spurred by a strong civil-military alliance and ability to effectively juggle relationships with Gulf countries as well as the U.S. and China.

"If there is one factor above all that has fuelled the widening of diplomatic opportunity for Pakistan, it is the trust and symbiosis between the field marshal and prime minister," Mosharraf Zaidi, Sharif's spokesperson, told Reuters.

Both Zaidi and Andrabi highlighted diplomatic initiatives from their offices, and a flurry of meetings and almost daily phone calls with world leaders.

On Sunday, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar hosted counterparts from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt for talks that focused on ending the war in Iran.

"Because of Mr. Dar's frequent interactions with these foreign ministers, they can share intimate comments as well as a solemn moment," Andrabi said.

'FAVOURITE FIELD MARSHAL'

Ties with Washington have since deepened through frequent engagement between Pakistan's civil and military leadership and the White House.

Munir and Sharif have held talks with the U.S. that included investment opportunities, a crypto deal with a Trump family-linked business, and Middle East security, anchoring Pakistan's makeover with a mixture of business deals and geopolitical alliances.

Munir, who Trump has called his "favourite field marshal", was the only serving military chief at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year. Sources said he held further interactions with Trump there, and has spoken with Vice President JDVance multiple times since the Iran war began.

Vance communicated with intermediaries from Pakistan about the Iran conflict as recently as Tuesday, according to a source briefed on the matter, making clear that Trump was open to a ceasefire if certain demands were met.

Sharif, meanwhile, has held repeated meetings with Trump as well as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Pakistan signed a mutual defence deal with Saudi Arabia last year.

HEARTBURN IN INDIA

Pakistan's ascension on the international stage is however causing heartburn in India, which has usually had the higher diplomatic profile of the two rivals. Its opposition has questioned the government's hands-off approach in the Middle East war and analysts say Islamabad’s rise risks leaving New Delhi on the sidelines of regional diplomacy.

"I have been calling for almost three weeks now for India to take a leading stand, leveraging its good relations with both sides into a peace initiative," said opposition lawmaker Shashi Tharoor. "Now, apparently, Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey have done it. Good luck to them...but India gets no credit while Pakistan is holding the peace talks."

However, Pakistan's economy remains in the doldrums and analysts say it risks being pulled into the war because of the defence pact with Saudi Arabia, which could spark protests from its own Shi'ite community, the second-largest in the world after Iran.

Islamabad is also enmeshed in its own conflict with neighbouring Afghanistan, which surged days before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Tehran.

Pakistan "has to continue to look inwards to bolster its own pillars of national power, especially its economy," said Uzair Yunus from strategic advisory firm The Asia Group.

"It also needs to build an integrated defence industrial complex in partnership with Saudi Arabia and Turkey."

Islamabad would need a long-term strategy to balance ties with Iran, its defence partnership with Riyadh and relations with Washington amid an unpredictable and possibly prolonged conflict, said Jawaid from Control Risks.

"The civil-military leadership will need to be very careful of the role and extent of Pakistan's involvement. Overplaying the mediator card could prove to be more damaging if not managed astutely."

(Reporting by Saad Sayeed in Bangkok; Additional reporting by Ariba Shahid and Mubasher Bukhari in Islamabad and Saurabh Sharma in New Delhi; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)