Running out of time: Israel escalates Iran strikes as Trump weighs ‘elegant exit’

TEL AVIV — The hourglass in the war with Iran appears to have turned. With the regime in Tehran showing no signs of collapse, the mass protest of several months ago showing no signs of reawakening and the mobilization of the Kurds or other minoritie no longer seeming relevant, the Americans, as well as the Israelis, are looking for alternatives that will allow them to declare victory at some point and stand down.

Updating war goals

Israel is beginning to update its goals and lower the bar of expectations. Regime change, which was a declared goal at the start of the war, is being replaced with vague wording about creating conditions for regime change and destroying the regime's ability to continue oppressing its people. In a pre-recorded video message Sunday, Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu said the military operation aimed at creating "the conditions that will enable the Iranian people to take control of their own destiny."

The contradictory statements by US President Donald Trump in recent days regarding the state of the war also appear to reflect a shift.

“We’re seeing an internal struggle and deliberation inside the administration about what is the right thing to do now: to continue with full steam ahead or to find an elegant exit route," a senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.

In Israel, too, opinions are divided. The political decision-makers, namely Netanyahu as well as the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency, continue to believe in the goal of regime change in Iran. The military is more doubtful but continues its persistent and widespread strikes in Iran in case Trump shuts the window of opportunity.

"There are many more missions and goals," an Israeli military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. These include further erosion of Iran’s ballistic missile, nuclear and drone capabilities, as well as government targets, he said.

"Every additional day of attacks is a gift," he noted. "Regime change will take time, but if sanctions are tightened, the American armada remains here and imposes a crackdown on Iran, the regime will ultimately fall. You need patience. It’s usually said that the Iranians have the patience that the West does not. This needs to be reversed. Time is on our side now."

Publicly, Trump has not ruled out putting US troops on the ground. NBC report reported last week that the president was seriously considering a limited ground operation. Such an operation by special forces could be tasked with detecting, destroying or removing the hundreds of kilograms of highly enriched uranium Iran has apparently hidden under ground.

Israel is known for daring special forces operations even in remote locales. Over the weekend, a team of the Israel Air Force's Shaldag special operations unit mounted an operation in the village of Nabi Cheet, deep in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley, seeking to locate the remains of Israeli navigator Ron Arad, whose fighter jet was shot down over Lebanon 40 years ago. According to Lebanon’s official National News Agency, the Israeli force conducted a firefight with Hezbollah fighters in the area, which is a longtime bastion of the Iranian-backed organization.

Israeli officials are denying a Sunday report on the Axios news site that Israel's strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots Saturday were far broader than the United States expected when Israel notified it in advance.

"Everything is coordinated between us, down to the most sensitive micro-details. The cooperation is unprecedented, the tasks are divided and neither side surprises the other," a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “The Americans may be uncomfortable identifying with the attack, but we must remember that Israel has not yet attacked the infrastructure of the oil or gas industry, but rather reservoirs used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which are the prime cause of oppression and mass murder in Iran."

Israel advancing on the Hezbollah front

The front with Lebanon could also stir tensions with the United States. Israel had largely written off Hezbollah as a threat following its pounding in 2023-24 after entering Israel’s war with Hamas. The group had initially said it would not intervene to aid Iran against Israel, but succumbed to strong pressure from its patron in Tehran and has surprised observers with its ability to engage Israeli troops in southern Lebanon and strike targets deep inside Israel.

Hezbollah has sent many Israelis into shelters deep inside the country with massive missile strikes in recent days. Unlike launches from Iran, missiles from Lebanon strike without significant advance warning. But Israel knows that the Americans are far less interested in Hezbollah’s attacks at Iran’s behest than Israel is.

"There is no oil or gas in Lebanon, there are no significant interests there and there is little potential for business," an Israeli political source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, "As far as we are concerned, this is an important front. We have a long border with Lebanon. The Syrians are closing their border with Lebanon and isolating Hezbollah. Iran is fighting for its life, the internal front in Lebanon is united against Hezbollah and Israel must make the most of it," he said, referring not only to the military front but also to the diplomatic one. "A war must be ended by a political agreement, and there is tremendous potential for that here."

According to a Sunday Channel 12 report, the Lebanese government recently approached Israel through US mediator Tom Barrack with a proposal for immediate direct negotiations on a peace agreement between the two countries at the level of foreign ministers in Cyprus. A peace deal has not been on the table since the 1982 assassination of Lebanese Christian leader Bashir Gemayel, who had expressed willingness to discuss the possibility of peace with Israel.

"This is an unprecedented opportunity for a historic agreement between Israel and Lebanon," a top Israeli diplomat told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "We don't have to insist on disarming Hezbollah down to its last rocket or Kalashnikov. A US-backed normalization or peace between Israel and Lebanon is an unimaginable opportunity, with Hezbollah at its deepest point of weakness," he said. "Hezbollah is losing its great patron in Tehran, its economic and ideological support, and we must not give up on this window of opportunity."

Israeli forces have periodically occupied positions in southern Lebanon over the past 50 years to defend its northern communities from attack, initially by the PLO and subsequently by Hezbollah. Israel now maintains various outposts there and is considering moving further into Lebanese territory. Israeli officials describe this as a forward defense of Israel’s northern border communities, which have come under constant rocket attacks for the past week. However, Israel could find itself mired in Lebanon once again, as it was for almost 20 years after the 1982 war, for which it paid dearly.

The goal of completely disarming Hezbollah under the terms of the November 2024 ceasefire with Lebanon now seems distant. Off the record, Israeli officials are beginning to talk about a complete break between Iran and Hezbollah as a possible goal of the operation — one that could ultimately doom Hezbollah to annihilation.