The US-Israeli war against Iran has thrust the Strait of Hormuz into the global spotlight, with the conflict impeding roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply and risking widespread economic fallout. While attention has focused primarily on lost fuel exports, a different energy security crisis is quietly brewing among the Gulf states, where infrastructure damage and looming power crunches threaten everything from water desalination to summer air conditioning. 

The war launched Feb. 28 already poses direct risks to regional electricity infrastructure. Kuwait, for instance, experienced a partial outage on March 23 after missile debris cut power lines. A day earlier, Iran warned that it would strike energy and water infrastructure across the Gulf if US President Donald Trump followed through on threats to attack its electricity grid, raising fears of sweeping disruptions. Even without further physical damage, a prolonged war could still impact local energy supplies in other ways.

Despite the vast hydrocarbon wealth of the Middle East, countries in the region have nonetheless become increasingly vulnerable to fuel shortages during peak demand months, when scorching temperatures strain power grids from Kuwait City to Cairo. Iraq in particular has long struggled with chronic electricity shortages, including a nationwide blackout last summer, and Iran was grappling with energy crisis even before the war began last month.

In theory, the energy-rich region should be immune to power shortages, especially with the glut of liquified natural gas (LNG) cargos trapped by the war. Bahrain, Iraq and Kuwait have all become LNG importers, which helps them cover power generation gaps due to shortages in their own domestic gas supply.