US-Iran tensions fan oil disruption fears as Gulf states confront retaliation risks
From blocking the Strait of Hormuz and seizing commercial shipping to striking energy infrastructure, Tehran’s retaliation playbook could rattle the region as Gulf states fear red lines have been crossed.
Amid a high-stakes US-Iran standoff in early 2026, Tehran has returned to a familiar tactic: rattling nerves by threatening the world's most important oil choke point.
On Jan. 29, Iran’s Press TV reported that the Islamic Republic’s Revolutionary Guard naval forces would carry out live-fire exercises on Feb. 1-2 in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows. This is a standard signal from Tehran, which has long threatened energy shipments in the strategic strait off its southern coast when facing external pressure.
This time, however, the brinkmanship could be different. US-Iran tensions have neared a boiling point as American military forces mass in the region. On Jan. 28, US President Donald Trump warned a reluctant Tehran to negotiate on a nuclear deal or face an attack “far worse” than the US bombing of its nuclear facilities last summer. This came as a US aircraft carrier and other military assets arrived in the region.
For Gulf states and global markets, this posturing has revived long-standing fears that a direct confrontation — or regime collapse in Iran — could spill across borders, disrupting oil flows, jolting prices and financial markets, and undermining the Gulf’s carefully cultivated image as a stable wealth haven and business hub.
