Turkey’s Syria gains come with risks as Damascus pushes Kurdish integration
Turkey has benefited from the Syrian government’s rollback of the Kurdish-led forces, but whether those gains translate into lasting security, refugee returns and domestic de-escalation will depend on political inclusion in Damascus.
Turkey has emerged as a clear short-term beneficiary of the Syrian government’s rapid rollback of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, but whether those gains endure will depend less on battlefield outcomes than on political choices in Damascus.
The SDF’s swift retreat in northeast Syria in the face of an advance by government forces has eased Ankara’s long-standing fears of a Kurdish-run entity along its southern border, reduced friction with Washington and opened new possibilities for domestic de-escalation and refugee returns. Yet the transition remains fragile.
Talks between Damascus and the SDF face a looming deadline and analysts caution that renewed fighting or heavy-handed governance could quickly spill back into Turkey. The coming weeks, they say, will test whether Syria’s consolidation under President Ahmed al-Sharaa translates into lasting stability, or merely reshuffles the risks Ankara has sought to contain.
Ankara’s security worries ease, for now
