While Turkey does not see Iran’s unrest as an immediate security threat, it is still bracing for the fallout. Potential US military intervention in the country could trigger cascading risks for Turkey, from disrupted trade routes to refugee flows and a shifting regional balance that could favor Israel.

Wary of a potential US military intervention in Iran, Ankara is responding by pursuing a delicate balancing act: opposing military action while urging Tehran to deescalate tensions with Washington. Analysts say while a potential military intervention in Iran would not pose a direct threat to Turkey's national security, Ankara is still seeking to prevent a wider regional crisis that could spill across borders, disrupt trade corridors linking Turkey to Central and South Asia, trigger new refugee flows, and alter the regional power balance in ways that could undermine Turkey’s security and economic interests.

Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, on Thursday therefore openly declared that Turkey was against any foreign intervention in Iran amid lingering threats from US President Donald Trump. Fidan spoke with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, several times over the past week, urging reduced tensions.

Iran’s economic and political malaise