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Analysis

With Trump’s backing, Israel gives Lebanon last chance before attacking Hezbollah

"The Americans, led by the president, understand that you can't count on the Lebanese Army to disarm Hezbollah. It probably won't happen," a senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.

An Israeli soldier rides in the army Merkava main battle tank at a position in northern Israel along the border with southern Lebanon, Nov. 6, 2025, when Israel struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
An Israeli soldier rides in the army Merkava main battle tank at a position in northern Israel along the border with southern Lebanon, Nov. 6, 2025, when Israel struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. — JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — US President Donald Trump has given Israel what officials describe as guarded approval to act against Hezbollah if the Lebanese army fails to disarm the group, a message delivered privately to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu days after Beirut’s Dec. 31 deadline expired. While Israel has signaled a willingness to allow Lebanon more time to enforce the ceasefire south of the Litani River, Israeli officials say patience is wearing thin — and that Trump’s backing could prove decisive.

The initial Dec. 31 deadline set by Beirut for Hezbollah to disarm south of Litani expired, with Israel indicating a willingness to allow more time — if the Lebanese military shows itself up to the task.  

The ceasefire agreement reached in November 2024 states that the Lebanese Armed Forces will be the only armed force deployed south of the Litani River. It further stipulates that the army will begin dismantling existing unauthorized weapons depots and arms production sites in the area, a process intended to eventually lead to the disarmament of all factions in Lebanon, including Hezbollah.

"I think the Lebanese military wants to disarm Hezbollah but is unable to do so. There is growing frustration with the Lebanese government in the international arena," Energy Minister Eli Cohen told Ynet TV on Thursday, referring to American and European pressure on the government in Beirut. "The window of opportunity will gradually close, and if the state of Lebanon doesn’t act, we will."

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