Syria’s new authorities regained control of the country’s most important oil fields in January after a rapid offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. The development has injected cautious optimism into assessments of the country’s shattered energy sector — even as enduring security risks, damaged infrastructure and weak institutions threaten to complicate any rebound.

On Jan. 21, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie forecasted that Syrian oil and gas output could start recovering in 2026, following the government’s reassertion of control over key assets in Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa provinces following the SDF’s withdrawal. The firm described a combination of the territorial handover, sanctions relief and early foreign engagement as marking a potential “structural turning point” after more than a decade of conflict. 

This comes as Syria’s government, which came to power in January 2025 following the collapse of the Assad regime, has been chasing investment from international oil companies — including Chevron, which sent representatives to meet with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus in December. Any revival in production would be a major boost for the new government as it seeks to rebuild the country’s economy.

Yet experts caution that control alone will not deliver a near-term economic breakthrough. Benjamin Feve, senior research analyst at the Syria-focused Karam Shaar Advisory, warned against conflating territorial control with production recovery. “Control of the northeast oil and gas fields modestly improves the new authorities’ near-term outlook by expanding their fiscal and energy policy options, but it does not, by itself, unlock a rapid production rebound,” Feve told Al-Monitor.