Facing growing pressure by the Trump administration, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might have no choice but to reach a security deal with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa despite prevailing assessments in Israel that Damascus is unable to thwart the increasing threats of extremist groups present near the border with Israel. 

The security deal under discussion, backed by the Trump administration, envisions Israel withdrawing the forces it sent into Syria after the fall of the Assad government in December 2024 and returning to the 1974 disengagement lines. In exchange, the new Syrian government would guarantee that no attacks on Israel would be launched from its territory.

Israel’s security establishment, however, remains deeply skeptical of the new Syrian government’s intentions and its ability to control extremist groups near the border. Netanyahu’s approach is therefore essentially a risk-management calculation: He wants evidence that Sharaa can consolidate authority and is prepared to curb extremist actors capable of threatening Israel. In the absence of such assurances, it seems that Netanyahu sees little incentive to make early commitments, which explains the current delay.

"If the Americans decide on a firm and proactive approach for an Israeli-Syrian security agreement — the way Trump did on Gaza — Netanyahu’s tactic of stalling will not work," Carmit Valensi, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, told Al-Monitor. "Israel is genuinely concerned over the threat to its northern border but finds it more and more difficult to go against the American president, who clearly seeks for a deal to be reached in the coming weeks," she added.