Iraq’s parliamentary elections on Nov. 11 left Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al‑Sudani in a leading but uncertain position, with no single bloc able to secure a majority alone. Turkey will have to manage its relations with Iraq’s next government carefully, balancing its own strategic interests while navigating the enduring influence of Iran-aligned factions. 

While Sudani’s Reconstruction and Change Coalition emerged first, pro-Iran Shiite factions including Nouri al‑Maliki’s State of Law bloc and other members of the Coordination Framework remain kingmakers in parliament. Turkey views the outcome as an opportunity to maintain continuity in security cooperation and water-sharing agreements, strengthen ties with Baghdad and safeguard its regional interests. To do so, it will have to carefully account for Iran’s enduring influence and the potential for US-Iran tensions to affect the political landscape.

Iraq held its sixth parliamentary election on Nov. 11 since the 2003 invasion, under tight security and at a time of regional tension between the US and Iran. The election saw over 7,700 candidates run for 329 seats. Voter turnout landed officially at 56.11% of registered voters, a figure Sudani hailed as evidence of revived political confidence. Turnout in the previous election was a record low 43%.

Sudani leads, but premiership uncertain