The July 19 meeting in Amman between US envoy to Syria Tom Barrack and the commander in chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazlum Kobane, went markedly better than their first face-to-face encounter 10 days earlier in Damascus, with the sectarian violence that's gripping the majority-Druze province of Suwayda temporarily strengthening the Kurds’ hand, four sources familiar with the substance of the meeting told Al-Monitor. “Barrack was nicer; the ice between them was broken,” one of the sources said, without elaborating.

A follow-up meeting, potentially in Paris, is being planned, and French President Emmanuel Macron may attend, two of the sources said. The goal of the meeting would be to announce tangible progress in integrating the SDF and the Kurds’ civilian institutions into the central government, as part of a US-led effort to bolster Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, as he seeks to assert full control over his war-fractured country. France, which takes a historical interest in Syria and has strong ties to the Kurds, has been facilitating an SDF rapprochement with Damascus. 

Barrack hinted at a deal in an interview with the Associated Press on Monday, saying that he did not believe the violence in Suwayda had “derailed” talks between the SDF and Damascus and that there could be a “breakthrough” in the coming weeks. A State Department official speaking on background to Al-Monitor said they did not have “anything to preview regarding any potential travel” for Barrack. 

The Kurds are now in a stronger negotiating position, the sources contended — just as they were in March, when Sharaa faced his first major crisis since coming to power in December. That month more than 1,000 people, mainly Alawite civilians, were killed as Sunni gunmen swept through Syria’s coastal areas in retaliation for attacks carried out by remnants of the regime of ousted dictator Bashar al-Assad. Sharaa swiftly met with Kobane on March 10 — after months of avoiding him — and signed an agreement outlining the framework for unifying both the Kurds’ autonomous administration and the SDF with Damascus. 

But little progress has been made as the Kurds continue to insist on some form of autonomy, while Sharaa remains committed to a tightly centralized model of governance. Barrack publicly backed Sharaa’s position in a series of interviews following his July 9 meeting with Kobane, arguing that federalism doesn’t work in the region and warning that if the SDF didn’t act quickly, US troops deployed in Kurdish-led north and east Syria would not remain indefinitely. “Mazlum was put on notice that he had only days left, otherwise President [Donald] Trump might very well make a decision against the SDF,” one the sources said. “He was told, ‘You have been a great partner, but your world has changed. You have to accept reality,’” the source added.   

Middle East Eye reported on Monday that Turkish and US officials had delivered a 30-day ultimatum last week for the SDF to join the Damascus government. However, the sources briefing Al-Monitor said no such ultimatum had been issued by US officials. 

A State Department official, speaking on background, declined to comment on “the specifics of private diplomatic discussions.” However, the official confirmed that discussions on “the integration of the SDF into the Syrian government are ongoing and active.”

“We support the continuation of these discussions as the best way to resolve any outstanding issues,” the official added.

Nechirvan Barzani, president of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, has been lobbying on behalf of the Syrian Kurds — particularly Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with whom he has close ties — and is believed to have helped soften Ankara’s stance toward the SDF. Barzani, a skilled and influential negotiator, is also close to French President Emmanuel Macron. Since January, Turkey has halted attacks on the group as it pursues lasting peace with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), the Kurdish rebel group that has fought the Turkish army since 1984 and maintains close ties with the SDF.

At the same time, Barzani has been working to persuade Trump administration officials that Sharaa’s vision of a rigidly unitarian state is unrealistic for a country as ethnically and religiously diverse as Syria. He continues to engage all sides in search of a compromise that is “neither federalism, nor centralization,” one of the sources said. 

US pressure on Kobane has been steadily mounting since President Trump met Sharaa for the first time in Riyadh in May, shortly before Barrack — the US ambassador to Turkey — was appointed special envoy for Syria.

Syria’s foreign minister, Asaad al-Shaibani, who took part in the July 9 gathering, reportedly set an end-of-July deadline for the SDF to withdraw from areas under its control in Deir ez-Zor, an Arab-majority province bordering Iraq. Kobane refused. The meeting ended on a sour note, with Barrack reportedly walking out.

“The crisis in Suwayda bought [Kobane] some time,” one of the sources said, adding, “I can understand why he is dragging his feet. Nobody can bet on the mid-term survival of Sharaa and his regime and if anything big happens. Mazlum [Kobane] does not want his people to be left defenseless having handed over their weapons to Damascus.”  

Sharaa’s failure to quell the bloodletting between Sunni Bedouin tribes and the Druze that erupted more than a week ago over local grievances has weakened his position even more than the Alawite massacres did in March. Israel’s forceful intervention on the side of the Druze forced Sharaa to pull his forces out of Suwayda, where the Druze say they're siding with the Bedouin tribes. 

Resentment amid the tribes is growing, too, over Sharaa’s perceived capitulation before Israel and the Druze.  

The clashes have reportedly claimed more than 1,000 lives, with horrific abuses alleged to have been committed by all sides. A shaky truce announced by Barrack over the weekend is holding. Sharaa’s forces redeployed to Suwayda to avoid further violence, and civilians from both sides were poised to be evacuated on Monday. 

Barrack told a news conference on Monday that Syrian authorities “need to be held accountable” for the violations. In his interview with the Associated Press, Barrack argued that “the killing, the revenge, the massacres on both sides” are “intolerable,” but that “the current government of Syria, in my opinion, has conducted themselves as best as they can as a nascent government with few resources to address the multiplicity of issues that arise in trying to bring a diverse society together.”

Barrack reiterated US support for the Damascus government as he took aim at Israel for its attacks on Syria, saying they had come at “a very bad time."

“Strong nation states are a threat — especially Arab states are viewed as a threat to Israel,” Barrack contended. “I think all of the minority communities are smart enough to say, ‘We’re better off together, centralized.’” However, the past week’s carnage has made it clear that centralization cannot be achieved through brute force, “that there needs to be give and take,” one of the sources said. Moreover, if Sharaa’s forces have proven to be barely a match for the Druze, they are a far lesser one for the US trained and equipped SDF.