Turkey is currently engaged in a multilayered effort of diplomatic and military strategies to disarm the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Ankara considers a national security threat but has failed to crush for nearly a decade due to the organization's alliance with the United States in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria.

With the fall of the Assad dynasty in Syria, Turkey senses an opportunity to disarm the SDF’s leading Kurdish component — the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and its political wing, the Democratic Unity Party (PYD) — along with the allied Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been fighting the Turkish government for Kurdish autonomy since the 1980s from bases in Iraq. The United States has designated the PKK, but not the SDF, a terrorist organization. Turkey conducted several military incursions against the SDF between 2016 and 2020.

Last month in an interview, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Ankara is demanding that all PKK-affiliated individuals leave Syria, starting with non-Syrians, followed by PKK members with Syrian citizenship. In the meantime, Turkish officials have also ramped up threats to conduct military operations against SDF-held areas. 

Shift in calculus