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Analysis

Syrian rebel offensive worries Gulf states as they rally around Assad

Most Arab Gulf states have quickly expressed solidarity with Damascus, but the ongoing rebel offensive has caught many by surprise and adds a layer of uncertainty over Arab normalization with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

[2/7]Syria's President Bashar al-Assad meets with President of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the Presidential Airport in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates March 19, 2023. Abdulla Al Neyadi/UAE Presidential Court/WAM
Syria's President Bashar al-Assad meets with President of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the Presidential Airport in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates March 19, 2023. — UAE Presidential Court

The lightning offensive carried out last week by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army and a host of other Syrian rebel groups fighting President Bashar al-Assad, has quickly upended assumptions about the 13-year-old war being a frozen conflict.

Shortly after HTS’s Operation Deter the Aggression began on Nov. 27, these rebel groups took control of Syria’s second largest city, Aleppo, and other parts of the province. 

It is notable that three days into this HTS-led offensive, Assad had a phone conversation with his Emirati counterpart Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed. During that discussion, MBZ stressed his country’s solidarity with Syria in its fight against “terrorism and extremism.” He also reaffirmed Abu Dhabi’s position in favor of resolving the Syrian crisis in a peaceful manner that upholds Syria’s sovereignty and preserves the Syrian nation-state’s territorial integrity.

That the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf Cooperation Council members have expressed solidarity with the Damascus government since Aleppo’s fall has not been surprising. For the most part, the Gulf Arab monarchies do not view these rebel groups —many with Jihadist and Islamist roots — favorably and fear the repercussions of them holding on to Aleppo and possibly usurping control of additional cities and strategic locations in Syria.

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