Since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in October 2023, analysts have repeatedly warned of the conflict’s dangers to neighboring Jordan, with over half of the kingdom’s population being of Palestinian origin. Writing for the Arab Center Washington, DC, think tank, Curtis Ryan argued in June that the Gaza war represents an “existential threat” to Jordan, citing anti-Israel protests across the Hashemite Kingdom. Two months earlier, in April, Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militia group in Iraq, threatened to supply 12,000 fighters in Jordan with explosives and rockets to attack the Jewish state. Last November, Jordanian Prime Minister Bisher Khasawneh said that any Israeli attempt to forcibly transfer large numbers of Palestinians into the Hashemite Kingdom would be deemed a “declaration of war.”

Monarchy's firm control

But it's been over a year since the Gaza war began, and King Abdullah remains in firm control of his country’s territory with strong backing from the country’s security forces. While Amman has previously postponed elections due to regional challenges, including during the buildup to the 2003 Iraq war, Jordanian authorities kept last September's national parliamentary elections on track, highlighting confidence in the country’s stability. On Oct. 27, the Royal Court posted that Crown Prince Hussein attended a camel racing and poetry festival, which hardly indicates that Jordan is facing imminent regime collapse. 

It is true that Jordan has at times faced large demonstrations in support of Palestinians, with some calling for Abdullah to cancel the 1994 peace treaty with Israel. However, the protests have been largely peaceful, and not a single Jordanian activist has been killed during clashes with the country’s security forces over the course of the Gaza war. While demonstrations increased during the month after the war erupted, along with a second wave this spring, the intensity of the protests has declined in recent months. Large-scale demonstrations are also fairly standard for the Hashemite Kingdom. Two years ago, activists hit the streets assailing a hike in fuel prices and a police officer killed in the southern city of Ma’an. In 2018, thousands of Jordanians demonstrated against a tax increase, causing the downfall of Prime Minister Hani Mulki. Of course, anti-Israel protests following the outbreak of the most recent conflict are not unique to Jordan. Demonstrations have occurred in Egypt, England and Indonesia. Yet few are arguing that Cairo's or Jakarta’s stability is at risk due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.