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Analysis

How killing of Iran’s IRGC commander in Syria could ignite Israel-Lebanon war

With Hezbollah increasing its missile and drone attacks against Israel’s northern communities, war on the Lebanon border could erupt at any minute.
AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — The commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria, Sayyed Ghazi Mousavi, was killed Monday when missiles struck his home on the outskirts of Damascus. His assassination was widely attributed to Israel and marked the 80th day of its war on the Iranian-backed Hamas militia in Gaza.

Israeli commentators suggested that the assassination of Mousavi, also known as "Sayyed Ghazi," may signal that unlike the initial days of the war on Hamas, launched in response to the group’s Oct. 7 atrocities in Israel’s south, Israel is now prepared for an additional front on its northern border that could include a significant aerial strike on Iran. The high-profile killing also seemed like a warning to Hamas’ Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar.

"His assassination is as close as it can get to the Iranian leadership and to the Hezbollah leadership," a Middle Eastern diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "This is a signal from the assassins that no one is immune in the war that is developing in the Middle East, from [Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah southward."

The attack prompted threats of retaliation by Iran and its allied Hezbollah militia. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi warned that "Israel will definitely pay for its actions" while Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said “Tel Aviv should be counting down.” Hezbollah accused Israel of "murder," calling Mousavi’s killing "a blatant, shameless attack that transcended borders."

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