InstaDeep, a Tunisian artificial intelligence startup, announced its exit to BioNTech, a German next-generation immunotherapy company, in a deal worth £562 million ($697 million) Jan. 10. The German vaccine maker will pay a total upfront of £362 million ($449 million) in cash and shares, and the remaining £200 million ($248 million) will be paid out depending on InstaDeep’s future performance. This deal, expected to be closed by the first half of 2023, comes after BioNTech participated in InstaDeep’s $100 million Series B funding round in January 2022.

The deal is the biggest publicly disclosed acquisition in the African startups ecosystem and likely the second biggest in the Middle East, after Careem's $3.1 billion exit to Uber in 2019. This deal might be the game-changer the Maghreb region needs to unlock the next growth stage, three operators — Noureddine Tayebi of Algerian Yassir, Ismail Belkhayat of Moroccan Chari, and Grégoire de Padirac of Orange Venture — told Al-Monitor in December.

It’s easy to see why it may be so, as mega exits have historically upturned ecosystems across the world. Careem’s $3.1 billion exit did it for the Middle East by creating local angel investors and founders and validating the region as a market worthy of big investment. Paystack’s $200 million exit to Stripe did the same in the Nigerian ecosystem, which is now the biggest startup hub in Africa per venture funding. Skype’s $2.6 billion exit to Ebay in 2005 will always be remembered as the beginning of Estonia’s startup royalty.

Can the same be said for Tunisia and the Maghreb region? The simple answer is yes. But a deeper look into the nuances of the Maghreb market and the countries in it suggests such an exponential shift is less likely there. Granted, this exit will create a few local Tunisian millionaires that might choose to start their own businesses or write seed checks for others and then grow the ecosystem. But there is no guarantee that foreign investors will rush in.