Two prominent strategic issues await the attention of Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu as he returns to office this Thursday as the head of his sixth government. One is policy on Iran, the other on Saudi Arabia. One embodies threat, the other, hope.

Netanyahu has stated his intention of restoring the Iran issue to the top of his agenda and is expected to dedicate himself to thwarting Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. At the same time, he is expected to do all in his power to rope Saudi Arabia into the 2020 Abraham Accords. Netanyahu views the Saudis as the centerpiece of his peace legacy, a crucial addition to the peace deals he engineered with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Sudan. Right now, both missions seem to exceed his reach. 

Netanyahu has put together the most radical, zealous and messianic government in Israeli history, which will undoubtedly burden Israel’s array of strategic relationships in the region. That said, Netanyahu is also endowed with proven diplomatic skills and geopolitical understanding and has already embarked on a sweet-talking campaign of lobbying vis-a-vis the Saudis, which will require American input. But his ambitions and skills notwithstanding, relations with Riyadh are hardly up to Netanyahu. In fact, he may be an impediment to such an outcome.  

Netanyahu takes office even as an updated military intelligence assessment places Iran on the threshold of nuclear ability in terms of the enriched uranium at its disposal. The authors of the assessment believe Israel should encourage an agreement curbing Iran’s nuclear program, based on the formula of eased economic sanctions in return for curbs on Iran’s nuclear project. Before being ousted from office in June 2021, Netanyahu demanded that the United States and other world powers amend the 2015 agreement with Iran to extend its duration and improve its effectiveness. He would presumably still accept this “longer and stronger” formula, but Iran is no longer likely to play along.