Having lost much leverage in its fraught ties with the United States, Turkey seems to be pinning hope on its newfound influence as a drone maker to bolster its strategic value in Washington’s eyes and tout the prospect of creating a “drone crescent” to contain Russia.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s meeting with his US counterpart Joe Biden at the NATO summit June 14 will mark a critical moment in Ankara’s bid to mend fences and achieve some form of transactional rapport with Washington that would ease external and domestic pressures on Erdogan.

In the lead-up to the meeting, Turkey last month sealed a deal to sell 24 TB2 drones to Poland, which became the first NATO and European Union member to buy Turkish drones, following in the steps of Azerbaijan, Qatar, Tunisia and Ukraine. The $270 million deal involves operator training, maintenance and the setup of the systems’ command-control architecture — a sign that Turkey is exporting not just drones but also a battle-proven drone warfare doctrine. Albania, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Pakistan and Uzbekistan are among other countries that might follow suit.

Turkish drones proved their efficiency against Russian air defense systems in northwestern Syria in February 2020, in Libya in the summer of 2020 and in Nagorno-Karabakh in the fall, dealing heavy blows to Russian-sponsored forces. Standing out as a low-cost and low-risk warfare option, they were able to scuttle Russian air dominance in lower altitudes and destroy command, control and communication centers, storage facilities, logistical convoys, tanks, armored vehicles and indirect fire support systems.