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5 potential scenarios for Iran deal

With only weeks to go until US President Donald Trump faces a deadline to sign sanctions waivers, the nuclear deal with Iran could go very different places.

President Donald Trump’s tapping of Mike Pompeo and John Bolton for secretary of state and national security adviser, respectively, should do away with any pretense that the US administration wishes to “fix” the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). While Trump has long telegraphed his desire to undo the nuclear deal, Pompeo and especially Bolton have long advocated regime-change policies toward Iran, including war. As the May 12 deadline for Trump to renew sanctions waivers under the JCPOA approaches, five scenarios exist for how Trump’s “fix it or nix it” saga on the accord will play out.

The first possible scenario is that Europe gives in to Trump’s demands and agrees to new sanctions on Iran over its regional activities and ballistic missile program. In this case, Iran will benefit even less from the nuclear deal, especially given how much of its JCPOA-ordained sanctions relief has already been stymied by US sanctions and threatening rhetoric. Even in this scenario, there is no assurance that Trump will still not seek other ways to kill the deal. For instance, Iran may choose to remain in the deal but would retaliate against regional sanctions by forgoing any regional cooperation with the West. In recent months, Iranian diplomats have met with their European counterparts to discuss regional issues, including in London and Munich. Hamid Baeidinejad, Tehran’s ambassador to London, recently stated, “Iran and Britain have made important decisions to take action to end this [the Yemeni] crisis.” If Europe joins in on new non-nuclear sanctions, this vital diplomatic path that has started may be suspended.

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