As Turkey’s June 7 general elections draw near, the fate of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinges on whether the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), an offshoot of the Kurdish movement, will overcome the 10% national vote threshold to enter parliament.
The outcome of the HDP struggle with the world’s highest threshold lies at the heart of all scenarios for the AKP, both positive and negative. One of the best scenarios for the ruling party is to clinch a three-fifths parliamentary majority, or at least 330 of the 550 seats, which would allow it to rewrite the constitution unilaterally in line with Erdogan’s ambitions for an authoritarian executive presidency and take the draft to a referendum.