Despite the prevailing political impasse in Lebanon, observers cannot but take into consideration a few events that should they come to pass have the potential to set in motion a number of solutions in regard to Lebanon.
The main features and symptoms of Lebanon's ongoing crisis are by now well known, boiling down to the presidential vacuum since May 25 and the failure to conduct parliamentary elections since June 2013, after the term of the parliament elected in 2009 expired. In theory, the latter impasse has been resolved by virtue of a parliamentary decision made in May 2013, when the majority of "not so legitimate" representatives tacked another 17 months onto its term. The extended term was supposed to have ended Nov. 20, 2014, but another parliamentary decision on Nov. 5 further extended the term until June 20, 2017.
The causes of the crisis are manifold and complex. The internal and external balance of power allows the scales to be tipped at any given moment in favor of one or another local party. One of the most dynamic factors is the Syrian war, with its dangerous military and security repercussions and involvement of Lebanese forces. There are also the many gaps in Lebanese constitutional documents and customs, which have not led to the country being administered under the current constitution any differently than it was 25 years ago.
The constitution, for instance, does not stipulate a mechanism for resolving the election of a new president in the event a parliamentary quorum is not reached. In addition, the law on parliamentary elections does not provide a system for solving the issue when parliamentary elections are not held and the parliament’s term expires. This lack of crucial legal and constitutional mechanisms is impeding the rotation of power. All these factors helped produce the current political deadlock and vacuum, and until recently, no solutions appeared in sight. During the past few weeks, however, a series of developments and events have taken place that could lead to a breakthrough if they are logically and analytically linked.
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