In the span of five weeks, another salvo of rockets of unknown origin smashed into an area replete with symbolism for Lebanon. The first of these attacks, on July 9, had targeted the Chiah neighborhood of Dahieh, a known stronghold of the Amal movement and Hezbollah. The latest strike, on August 1, was aimed at an area full of Lebanese Army posts that lies within the extended security perimeter of the Presidential Palace, in the southern Metn region.

The first message seemed to be directed at Hezbollah, perhaps as a warning that the price of fighting alongside the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will be high. The latest message, however, appears to be aimed at multiple parties. It could serve to warn the army commander, General Jean Kahwaji, that his sustained campaign against Salafist terrorism will exact a heavy toll. It might also caution President Michel Suleiman that continuing to raise his voice against Hezbollah’s weapons will not pass without punishment. The broader message threatens Lebanon’s security system as a whole.

Each of these messages conflicts with the others, which suggests that the origins of them are not one and the same. This, in turn, leads some to think that a third faction has entered the arena to exploit the ongoing state of political confusion in Lebanon and take advantage of the prevailing high tensions.

There are differences between the rocket attack that targeted the southern suburbs a little less than a month ago and the latest one in the vicinity of the army’s headquarters and the Presidential Palace. The main difference is that this time, the perpetrators did not leave their launch pads behind. This means that they acted calmly, with unhurried confidence and freedom. Another difference is that the launch occurred following a day of festivities attended by most of the state’s personages to celebrate Army Day. The timing and location hit beg one question: What if the intended target was the Army Day parade?