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Will There Be a Turkish Peace Dividend?

The Kurdish peace process could bring changes to Turkey’s highly controversial and unchecked security policies and defense expenditures.
A Turkish soldier is reflected on a mirror as he stands guard on top of an armoured personnel carrier on the Turkish-Syrian border near the Akcakale border crossing, southern Sanliurfa province, October 4, 2012. Turkey's parliament gave authorisation on Thursday for military operations outside Turkish borders if the government deemed them necessary, a day after artillery shelling from Syria killed five civilians in the Turkish town of Akcakale. REUTERS/Murad Sezer (TURKEY - Tags: POLITICS CONFLICT MILITARY)

The Turkish government's threat perception has always reflected a military mindset because of weak and inefficient political actors resulting from the once-frequent military coups and memorandums issued against elected governments beginning with the 1960 coup. It was only a few years ago that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government imposed its vision, to a certain extent, on the definition of external threats while limiting internal threats to extreme leftist, rightist and radical Islamic groups. In doing so, the AKP removed practicing Muslims from the military-drafted list of threats to the country’s still militant secular character.

Threat perceptions defined in the highly secret National Security Policy Papers (MGSB) are now believed to be influenced by the elected government. Regardless, Turkey continues to retain security-centric policies. In the future, however, they may come to be based on democratic principles if the Kurdish peace process initiated by the AKP government to end the three-decades-old terrorism problem is a success.

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