Ankara’s ongoing missteps in Iraq may cost it another valuable regional ally. Not only has Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to create and lead a grand Sunni Muslim alliance that could check Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s power, but his policies have undermined essential Turkish interests in Iraq. Baghdad has recently stopped awarding commercial licenses to Turkish companies, Sunni Arabs are turning toward Maliki and the PKK continues to operate from bases in Iraqi Kurdistan. If Turkey wants to keep its borders secure and become a regional energy hub, then it may have to re-think its sectarian-based foreign policy, understand the limits of soft-power politics and more clearly reaffirm its commitment to Iraqi sovereignty.
The deterioration of Ankara-Baghdad relations is not a by-product of the so-called Arab Spring or the Syrian crisis, but a result of Erdogan’s personalized politics and miscalculation of Iraqi and Kurdish nationalism. Indeed, the Turkish premier has created useful partnerships to help secure Ankara’s stakes in Northern Iraq’s energy wealth. With Turkish backing, former rivals Atheel al-Nujaifi, the governor of Mosul Province, which is the heart of Sunni Arab Iraqi nationalism, and Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) are now discussing ways to cooperate on oil contracts, including the ExxonMobil deal. Erdogan’s Barzani alliance also has helped create a productive Iraqi Kurdish client state and a direct outlet for Turkish oil and gas imports.