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Analysis

Deal or war? Israel fears fallout from Trump’s next move on Iran

Israel is struggling to decipher the White House’s intentions toward Iran, given Washington's contradictions around launching a fresh military campaign.

GRAND ISLAND, NEBRASKA - OCTOBER 05: U.S. President Donald Trump wraps up an appearance at a campaign rally at Pinnacle Bank Expo Center on the Nebraska State Fairgrounds on October 05, 2026 in Grand Island, Nebraska. Trump is campaigning for incumbent U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) and Gov. Jim Pillen ahead of the November midterm elections. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
US President Donald Trump wraps up an appearance at a campaign rally at Pinnacle Bank Expo Center on the Nebraska State Fairgrounds on October 05, 2026 in Grand Island, Nebraska. — Win McNamee/Getty Images

TEL AVIV — Israel’s military establishment is concerned that a major decision by President Donald Trump on Iran ahead of the Nov. 3 US midterm elections could undermine the country's security. 

One possibility is that Trump decides to resume the war against Iran, a move Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would apparently welcome but one that could jeopardize Israel’s elections scheduled for Oct. 27. The other is that Trump seeks a swift agreement with Tehran, accepting terms that Israeli officials would consider too weak to effectively curb Iran’s nuclear program.

Washington issued firm instructions to Israel this week to prepare for the possibility of renewed strikes on Iran. Israeli officials told Al-Monitor that the directive came as a surprise. The timing aligns with a report published Wednesday by The Atlantic that President Donald Trump had asked the Pentagon to develop options for striking Iranian targets before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

Trump has nevertheless been reluctant to resume hostilities, The New York Times reported on Thursday. He has rejected five plans for operations against Iran or the Houthis in recent months, despite requesting them himself. On Thursday, he wrote on Truth Social that the United States “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections.”

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