TEL AVIV — A confidential CIA assessment delivered to US policymakers this week concludes that Iran could withstand a US naval blockade for three to four months and retains most of its ballistic missile arsenal, findings that have unsettled Israeli officials and complicated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political and strategic messaging on the war with Iran, according to Israeli diplomatic sources.

The analysis, first reported by The Washington Post, estimates that Tehran still holds roughly 70% of its prewar ballistic missiles and about 75% of its mobile launchers despite weeks of Israeli and US strikes. It also assesses that Iran has restored access to much of its underground storage network, and in some cases repaired or completed missiles that were nearly finished when the war began.

The findings are likely to complicate Israeli assumptions in the lead up to the war that sustained bombardment would significantly degrade Iran’s ability to threaten Israel in the near term, particularly as Netanyahu seeks to frame the war as a strategic success ahead of Knesset elections expected in late October.

According to Israeli diplomatic sources, Netanyahu is banking on an agreement that US President Donald Trump is reportedly negotiating with Iran that would remove the country’s stockpile of near–weapons-grade uranium and block any renewed efforts to develop nuclear weapons. However, an Axios report on Wednesday suggested that gaps remain between the two sides, with the US reportedly seeking a 20-year ban on uranium enrichment while Iran has proposed a five-year suspension, raising the possibility of a compromise closer to 15 years.