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Analysis

Israel hedges, intensifies Iran and Lebanon strikes ahead of Trump talks

Israel believes that US President Trump might soon opt to end the war, leading to a surge in Israeli strikes ahead of a potential ceasefire.

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the eastern outskirts of the southern Lebanese coastal city of Tyre on March 24, 2026. Lebanon was pulled into the Middle East war when Iran-backed Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on March 2 to avenge the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israel has since launched strikes across Lebanon, killing at least 1,039 people and displacing more than a million others, and sent ground troops into the country's south. (Ph
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the eastern outskirts of the southern Lebanese coastal city of Tyre on March 24, 2026. — Kawnat HAJU / AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — The night after US President Donald Trump's surprising announcement Monday about contacts with Iran on ending the war, Iran appeared to increase its missile attacks on Israel, while Israel continued its bombing of Iranian sites.

In past wars against Hezbollah and Hamas, a sharp escalation by both sides has often heralded a ceasefire. "Both sides would have done their utmost to declare victory after inflicting maximum damage to the other," a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, adding, “The next few days will be decisive."

Israel embarrassed

Trump’s comments, whether intended to calm energy and stock markets or to lay the groundwork for ending the 25-day war, were a source of considerable embarrassment for Israel. Israeli diplomatic officials told Al-Monitor that indirect negotiations appear to be underway, possibly through Pakistan, the only potential mediator without ties to Israel.

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