Israel stands only to lose from the growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Israeli experts told Al-Monitor. This strategic shift could undermine the ability of external actors, including Israel, to rely on coordinated Saudi-Emirati leadership as the backbone of regional initiatives, the experts argued. Because many regional initiatives — from normalization and reconstruction to countering Iran — have depended on joint Saudi-Emirati backing, a split complicates Israel’s ability to rally Riyadh and Abu Dhabi behind joint diplomatic, economic or security initiatives, even if bilateral ties with each country remain intact.

Years of simmering competition between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over regional — and broader geopolitical — influence have, over the past six months, turned into a series of diplomatic battlefields, including in Yemen, Sudan and Somalia. The growing tensions between the sides could spill over into other regional files, including Gaza and Syria, and could also affect the enlargement of the 2020 Abraham Accords, warned the Israeli experts.

The rift makes it harder for Israel to build a unified regional front against Iran. When Riyadh and Abu Dhabi compete, joint diplomatic, economic and security initiatives toward Tehran become slower and more conditional, making it easier for Iran to play Riyadh and Abu Dhabi against one another.

The visible split also signals to Iran and its proxies that the “anti-Iran” axis is weaker and distracted, reducing the pressure they feel because of the alignment between Israel and the United States. This rift also empowers the Houthis in Yemen and gives Tehran openings in improving its ties with Riyadh.