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Analysis

As it prepares for Hezbollah’s retaliation, Israel anticipates limited fighting in Lebanon

After Israel killed Hezbollah military commander Ali Tabatabai, the militant group faces demands for retaliation from its base.

Hezbollah
Hezbollah militants carry the coffin of one of the victims of an Israeli strike on Nov. 24, 2025, in Beirut, Lebanon. — Adri Salido/Getty Images

TEL AVIV — Israel says its killing of Hezbollah’s second-in-command, Ali Tabatabai, in Beirut on Sunday was a message of its determination to see the group disarmed, if not by Lebanon’s military then by its own. 

"It was a very thick hint,” was how a top Israeli security official put it to Al-Monitor, speaking on condition of anonymity following the precision strike by two Israeli jets in the heart of Beirut's southern Dahiyeh district.

The killing of Hezbollah's military commander was Israel’s first assassination of a top Hezbollah actor since a ceasefire with the group went into effect in November 2024. Under the terms of the US-mediated agreement, Hezbollah is to be disarmed by the end of this year. But the Lebanese military has been facing significant difficulties in carrying out its mission, and Israel has increased its attacks on the group in recent weeks.

Israeli officials expressed concern that Sunday’s operation in Beirut could play into Hezbollah’s hands by stirring up domestic Lebanese anger at what the militant group describes as intimidation and threats by a hostile external actor. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, who replaced Hassan Nasrallah after he was killed by Israel last year, demands that state control on arms be a subject of domestic discussion among the Lebanese people and not influenced by outside pressure. 

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