What’s next for Saudi Arabia’s budget balancing act as deficit doubles?
The Gulf state now expects a deficit of $65.3 billion in 2025 — more than double the initial forecast — as the kingdom continues heavy spending amid weak oil prices.
Saudi Arabia unveiled new budget estimates on Sept. 30, projecting a 2025 deficit more than twice as large as previously forecast.
The timing underscores a delicate balancing act. The kingdom continues pouring money into megaprojects and acquisitions while lower oil revenues widen its fiscal gap. It’s not a new story — Riyadh has long accepted deficits as the price of its historic economic overhaul — but the numbers highlight just how much spending ambition is colliding with fiscal reality.
Details: Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance now expects a shortfall of $65.3 billion in 2025, equal to 5.3% of gross domestic product. That’s a jump from the $27 billion, or roughly 2.3% of GDP, projected last November. Total expenditure for the year is now projected at around $356 billion and GDP growth at 4.4%.
The revisions, published in the Pre-Budget Statement for Fiscal Year 2026, reflect both weaker-than-expected oil revenues and ongoing spending linked to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.
