As Russia’s war in Ukraine has entered its fourth year and diplomatic efforts to implement a ceasefire intensify, Turkey hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, signaling its critical role as a mediator for Ukraine — its strategic partner — Western allies and Russia. But the government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears hesitant to deploy troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.
On Thursday in Istanbul, Turkey hosted Russian and US teams for six hours of talks on restoring normal relations between the two powers.
On Feb. 18 — the same day a meeting occurred between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Saudi Arabia — Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, visited Erdogan and called on Ankara to be included in the ceasefire talks and as a guarantor once the ceasefire is established. Lavrov visited Erdogan on Monday.
Ukraine expects much from Turkey, and Ankara wants to help end the war on terms that are favorable to Kyiv. However, Turkey is limited by broader factors, including Russia’s territorial gains in the ongoing war; the ambiguity surrounding Russian, Ukrainian and US “red lines”; and whether the ceasefire will be monitored merely by an international mission or by a more robust “peacemaking” mission that would be deployed to protect Ukraine.
AL-MONITOR All-Access gives you unlimited access to all our journalism, the full Daily Briefing, exclusive interviews, premium newsletters, and live events — for less than $2/week.
