Following Donald Trump’s recent victory in the US presidential election, anticipation is building regarding his possible moves in major geopolitical hot spots, namely Ukraine, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific. However, the Horn of Africa is an overlooked yet critical region, one that could once again test Trump’s foreign policy legacy.

While Trump said little about Africa as a whole during his presidential campaign, the prevailing expectation is that Trump’s “America First” doctrine may drive Washington to limit its engagement in the Horn of Africa unless it directly aligns with US strategic interests.

A business-oriented approach, characteristic of Trump’s political philosophy, may shape how he addresses issues in the region. But he will also take up the baton from Joe Biden’s administration, which maintained limited engagement with Africa, often prioritizing other global concerns. That continues a long-standing trend, and African leaders frequently perceive the United States as somewhat indifferent to their region.

Under Biden’s term, the conflict in Sudan erupted, creating one of the world’s most dire humanitarian crises. Additionally, Ethiopia’s disputes with neighboring countries, such as Somalia and Egypt — over its memorandum of understanding (MoU) for the use of Somaliland’s Berbera port for Red Sea access in exchange for recognizing the breakaway region — have sparked diplomatic tension. Egypt’s concerns over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) — which Ethiopia began construction on in 2011 and has almost completed — add another source of tensions.