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Scientists: Time running out to save Istanbul from major earthquake

Seismologists are calling for urgent measures to prepare Istanbul for a major earthquake expected in the near future, warning of catastrophic destruction in Turkey’s most populous city and economic capital.

People fish from the Galata bridge, near Suleymaniye mosque (backround) in the Eminonu district of Istanbul, on January 10, 2023.  (Photo by OZAN KOSE/AFP via Getty Images)
People fish from the Galata bridge, near Suleymaniye mosque (backround) in the Eminonu district of Istanbul, on January 10, 2023. — OZAN KOSE/AFP via Getty Images

ISTANBUL — The devastating earthquakes in Turkey’s southeast have sounded alarms over sluggish preparations for a long-feared earth tremor in Istanbul that scientists say is likely in the near future, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the country’s most populous historic city and economic hub.

The Feb. 6 quakes, which hit with magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.6, killing more than 43,500 people and destroying thousands of buildings across 11 provinces, were the deadliest in quake-prone Turkey since two powerful tremors struck northwestern regions near Istanbul in 1999, claiming about 20,000 lives.

Since 1999, seismologists have been warning that Istanbul itself is at risk of a big earthquake in the near future due to seismic stress building up in the vicinity of the city beneath the Sea of Marmara on the western end of the North Anatolian Fault, one of the world’s most active fault lines.

A 62% probability

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