Ankara’s bid to normalize ties with Damascus has advanced to the level of ministerial talks, but an array of stumbling blocks remain that could derail the fledgling dialogue unless both sides moderate their positions. 

The diplomatic U-turns of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are often attributed to the stumbles of his regional policies, but his political instincts and the maneuvering ability they bring him should not be overlooked. Wary of the rising political cost of staying out of the normalization trend in the region, he pursued rapprochement with Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Tel Aviv and Cairo before turning to the Syrian government. Russian President Vladimir Putin had sought to coax him to mend fences with Damascus ever since the launch of the Astana process and is now skillfully offering him incentives to go ahead.

Yet, many aspects of Erdogan’s calculus remain unknown. What are his actual expectations from the normalization process as he faces a tough reelection race in the spring amid economic turmoil and rising popular discontent with the Syrian refugees? How committed is he to meeting Damascus’ conditions? Will he pull the plug on allied Syrian rebels or will he use them as a bargaining chip until the last moment? Does he take the jihadi threat abutting Turkey’s borders seriously? And is he determined to surmount US objections and sanctions along the way?

Even just breaking the ice with Damascus might benefit Erdogan in the elections, given that nearly 60% of the Turkish public supports dialogue with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the hope that restoring ties will facilitate the return of the refugees. Peace with Damascus has been an election pledge of the opposition, so at the very least, Erdogan has now stripped them of a major trump card. But few could say with certainty if he has made an irreversible choice to normalize ties or sees the process merely as an election investment. Hence the mistrust in Damascus.