Turkey’s economic growth — a goal that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has adamantly pursued at the expense of an inflation storm — is running out of steam ahead of crucial elections next year, lead indicators released this week show.

The country’s industrial output, the backbone of economic growth, has lost pace since July and expanded by a relatively modest 2.5% in October from the same month last year, according to the official data. In some major industries, production contracted. In the mining and energy generation sectors, for instance, it shrank by 7.4% and 4.8% year-on-year, respectively.

This and other lead indicators signal that growth has sharply slowed in the fourth quarter, meaning a growing risk that the economy might begin to stagnate ahead of the presidential and parliamentary polls due by June 2023. 

In an exclusive Al-Monitor/Premise poll released this month, the economy is the top priority for voters. According to the poll, breakneck inflation and skyrocketing prices stand out as the major issue complicating Erdogan’s reelection bid with 67% of respondents believing the economy is the most important challenge that Turkey is facing.