Turkey's stance complicates potential peace between Armenia, Azerbaijan
By linking Turkey’s normalization with Armenia to a peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Erdogan could encourage intransigence on Baku’s part.
The recent meeting between the leaders of Turkey and Armenia — the first in 13 years — has rekindled the prospect of normalization between the two estranged neighbors, with anticipation buoyed further by Armenia and Azerbaijan agreeing to a civilian European Union mission to help demarcate their disputed borders.
Armenia’s territorial conflict with Azerbaijan and its disputes with Turkey have grown into an entangled, ossified problem in the past three decades. Though a solution remains an uphill task, the cost of perpetuating the status quo has grown since the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, turning up the pressure for lasting peace.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met on the sidelines of a European gathering in Prague Oct. 6, after which the Turkish and Armenian leaders held bilateral talks. The last high-level meetings between the two countries took place in 2008 and 2009, producing a deal to establish diplomatic ties and reopen their border that eventually failed to go through.
Erdogan said after the meeting that Turkey was ready to reopen its border with Armenia and help revive transport links as soon as Yerevan and Baku reach a peace deal. This amounts to Turkey readjusting its terms and conditioning normalization with Armenia on the conclusion of Azerbaijani-Armenian peace. Previously, Ankara sought Armenia’s withdrawal from occupied Azerbaijani territories — a condition that materialized as a result of the 2020 war over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave in which Turkish military assistance helped Azerbaijan prevail.
