Leading the news: Netanyahu toppling government a ‘very difficult mission’

Idit Silman, a member of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's own right-wing Yamina party, announced her resignation from the coalition last week, depriving the PM of his razor-thin governing majority and raising the likelihood of a fifth Israeli election in three years.

While not on the brink of collapse, Bennett’s eight-party governing coalition is on shaky footing.

Al-Monitor’s Israel contributors are here to break down what comes next, and whether Bibi can stage a political comeback. 

• Stopping the bleeding: Bennett’s government now holds just 60 of 120 Knesset seats. "Bennett has succeeded in stopping the bleeding," says Ben Caspit. “The question is, can this government survive for the long term? No one puts money on this possibility because Bennett has to get 61 votes to approve another budget.” (The Knesset has until March 2023 to do so.) 
• On borrowed time?: Bennett’s so-called change coalition “now exists on borrowed time,” says Mazal Mualem. “It will have difficulty operating in the Knesset” without a majority. 
• Testing Ra’am: The other, more likely option, is passing a law to dissolve the Knesset and force fresh elections, which also would require at least 61 votes. Afif Abu Much says the opposition’s six-member predominantly Arab alliance known as the Joint List would likely vote in favor of a new election, “in order to see their rivals from Ra’am fail in their mission to integrate into the coalition.” (Whether Arab voters want elections is another story). 
• Bibi weighs his options: Former PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party has been trying to convince right-leaning coalition members to defect. Right now, Netanyahu can count on 54 opposition lawmakers voting in favor of a no-confidence measure to bring down the government without new elections. But he’d need to pluck off another seven defectors from Bennett’s coalition to reach 61 votes.  
• Who’s next: After Silman, could other coalition members follow suit? Bennett’s second-in-command, Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked, has reportedly held talks with the Likud party. But she and potential defectors, including Yamina member Nir Orbach, appear to be staying put for now. Netanyahu, however, only needs one crossover to call a new election. 

Bottom line: Even if an election is held and Netanyahu’s party wins the most seats, he would still face an uphill battle in assembling a governing coalition, which he failed to do after the last four inconclusive elections.  

“If you believe this time he could do the unbelievable, he could be the next prime minister within six to nine months,” says Caspit. But getting to 61 is “a very difficult mission.”