The low-intensity Israel-Iran war is escalating. For years conducted covertly, using surgical measures and keeping below the radar and away from the spotlights, the clashes between the sides are accelerating toward an outright war. The sides are still trying to operate without assuming public responsibility for their actions, using proxies and mounting “low-signature” attacks, but these rules are also being gradually abandoned. In Jerusalem, someone seems to have changed Israeli policy (more on this later). In Tehran, someone seems to be losing patience, becoming increasingly unwilling to continue containing attacks on its proxies and in Iran proper attributed to Israel.

According to the Lebanese Al-Mayadeen TV channel, linked to both Hezbollah and Iran, hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) of various kinds, including attack drones, were destroyed in a massive air raid last month on a western Iranian base near the town of Kermanshah. The Iranians, according to the report, attribute the strike to six Israel air force attack drones. Israel has not responded to the allegations, and did not take responsibility.

If true, and no one has denied it so far, the report suggests an extensive operation somewhat reminiscent of the initial hours of the 1967 Six Day War, when Israel destroyed the air forces of Egypt, Jordan and Syria (as well as part of the Iraqi air force), dealing its Arab neighbors a decisive blow that determined the outcome of that war. While Israel and Iran are not officially at war, and states are unlikely to deal knockouts to their enemies within six days, an operation that took out much of Iran’s UAV fleet would constitute a top-notch strategic achievement.

This week, in the early hours of March 13, a dozen ballistic missiles reportedly struck targets in Iraq's northern Kurdish capital of Erbil. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for the strike on what they said were US-allied Israeli targets. According to assessments, the missiles were fired in retaliation for the destruction of the UAV fleet last month, rather than this month’s killing of two senior-level Iranian commanders in an air raid in suburban Damascus, which Iran has attributed to Israel and pledged to avenge.