Israel's room to maneuver in Syrian skies faces new constraints
Recent geopolitical changes in the region are reducing Israel’s ability to act against the Iranian presence in Syria.
An unnamed Israeli security source told public broadcaster Kan on Oct. 25 that the air force will soon have to decide whether to act against the Syrian air defense system, in order to preserve Israeli supremacy in the region.
Alleged Israeli attacks on Iranian targets in Syria have become routine in recent years. Just two weeks ago, Israel reportedly attacked (according to foreign media) twice within one week – once, on Oct. 9, targeting an arms shipment near the T-4 air base and a few days later, on Oct. 14, in the Tadmor region of Homs Province. But the window of opportunity for Israeli military activity in Syria, which opened seven years ago, appears to be narrowing due to a number of regional and global shifts.
Israel began aerial attacks on Syria in 2013-2014 against the backdrop of the civil war there, assessing that the chaos would enable the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to move freely without risking a direct confrontation. This was the genesis of what Israel dubs the “war between the wars,” which aims to put off a full-fledged war by undermining Iran’s entrenchment in Syria and foiling its shipments of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah.
Israel’s MO was to avoid official claims of responsibility for attacks attributed to its air force, allowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad a certain degree of deniability without boxing him into a corner where he would have no choice but to retaliate for the Israeli strikes.
