Hot Take: Five quick takes on Raisi’s foreign policy

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, only one month in office, is giving top priority to regional diplomacy, cheering the Taliban takeover and making the case that the United States, not Iran, is "the main cause of insecurity in the region." Here are five trends we’re watching:

• Taliban not good for business. Although Iran is looking to capitalize on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan as a failure of American resolve, "In the short term, the rise of the Taliban will be a negative blow to Iran-Afghan trade," writes Bijan Khajehpour. Iran had a decent trading relationship with the previous Afghan government, which, unlike the Taliban, was not facing international sanctions. It’s still too early to say how isolated the Taliban will be, but the new Afghan government isn’t likely to improve Iran’s own isolation in the global economy. And then there will be the impact of refugees on Iran (which already hosts 3 million Afghans) and the possibility of more transnational crime and drug trade on its northern border. Bijan has the latest and best analysis here.
• "Balanced, active and smart." If the United States can’t be trusted on regional security, Iran can, according to the Raisi administration. At the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership on Aug. 28, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian promised a "balanced, active and smart" foreign policy focused on the region, adding that Iran will "warmly shake hands with all neighboring and regional nations."
• "Shaking hands" in the Gulf. Amir-Abdollahain met with UAE Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum at the Iraq summit. He said Iran and the UAE, longtime adversaries, can "make great strides and achieve neighborly diplomacy." Amir-Abdollahian also said that the fourth round of Iran-Saudi talks, held in Iraq under the auspices of Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, would resume soon.
• Road to Damascus. Amir-Abdollahian lamented that Syria was not represented at the Iraq summit, and traveled directly from Baghdad to Damascus to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and reaffirm Iran-Syria ties, which should be expected to strengthen under Raisi.
• "Not skipping" nuclear talks. Raisi has not ruled out a return to negotiation on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran nuclear deal. "It takes two to three months before the new [Raisi] administration settles down and starts planning," Amir-Abdollahian said on Aug. 30, adding, "We are not skipping the negotiating table."

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