In the weeks leading up to the formation of Israel’s new government, Naftali Bennett would say that as soon as he settled into Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s old office, the public would get used to him. Then, he said, his position in the polls would improve. He said the same thing just before his Aug. 27 official visit to the United States. In conversations with other politicians, he expressed his firm belief that something as simple as a photo of him in the White House alongside President Joe Biden would boost his public standing. 

This week, Bennett will mark three months since being sworn as prime minister, and the rise in the polls hasn’t happened yet. The problem isn’t just that the Yamina party, which he leads, remains stuck at six seats in the polls (one seat less than it won in the March 2021 election). It also lost a good part of its original base on the right. These supporters abandoned Bennett for breaking his original promises. Some of them have since returned to the Likud and Netanyahu.

Pundits who study the polls explain that the only reason Bennett has been able to maintain his strength is because he replaced many of his voters on the right with another pool of supporters.

Lying behind the numbers is one of the biggest stories in Israeli politics of the last generation. The right has undergone a historic rift since the election, as a result of Bennett’s decision to partner with the center-left.