With Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’s nomination as foreign minister set to be approved by Iran’s parliament, stalled negotiations to restore the Iran nuclear deal may finally get back on track. While it is not yet clear whether the Foreign Ministry or the Supreme National Security Council will oversee the nuclear file, Iran’s team has now taken shape and is largely united. Balancing hopes for resumption, however, is concern that Iran’s new government may not be willing to make the compromises necessary to restore the largely defunct deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The most optimistic read at this stage is that Tehran is still reviewing its options.

On the positive side, shortly before taking office on Aug. 5, newly elected President Ebrahim Raisi pledged to “seek to lift the tyrannical sanctions imposed by America." Such a thing cannot happen without a negotiated agreement involving Washington. As a presidential candidate, Raisi expressed a commitment to the JCPOA, and a senior EU official reported on Aug. 7 that Iran wants to get back to the negotiating table “as soon as possible.” While Iran’s economy has been helped by gradually expanding oil exports, much of it clandestinely, the pressures from an alarming COVID-19 plight and drought-related protests incentivize coming to terms with the United States. Al-Monitor recently explored other reasons a deal still might happen.

How long will Raisi wait, however, and what posture will his team adopt? Predictions that Iran would be much more assertive were born out even before he took office. On July 13, the US Justice Department charged four Iranians with conspiring to kidnap New York City-based exiled Iranian journalist Masih Alinejad. On July 29, Iran allegedly attacked the Israel-connected merchant tanker Mercer Street with explosive UAVs, killing two crew members from the United Kingdom and Romania. On Aug. 2, while approaching the Strait of Hormuz, the MV Asphalt Princess oil tanker was temporarily seized by hijackers who reportedly ordered it to sail to Iran. The same day, at least four other ships off the coast of the United Arab Emirates lost control of their steering in what was also suspected to be hijacking attempts at the hands of the Iranian military or its proxy forces. While maintaining plausible deniability regarding these incidents, Iran sees value on pushing back against attacks on its economy and infrastructure.

With regard to the talks to restore the JCPOA, in a July 12 report to parliament, outgoing Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif outlined the deal that is there for the making, if Iran were to adjust its demands. Two weeks later, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei indicated he did not agree, insisting that Tehran will not accept what he called Washington's "stubborn" demands. His demand for guarantees that the United States would not again pull out of a restored deal fails to comprehend that President Joe Biden cannot commit his successor to such a promise. Iran’s related demand for eliminating the sanctions snapback mechanism would gut a key element of the 2015 agreement, obviating the agreed goal of restoring the JCPOA. Iran meanwhile shows no sign of compromising on the demands that prevented agreement during the six rounds of talks this spring: that the United States lift all 1,500-odd sanctions introduced by former President Donald Trump and that Iran will not commit to engage in follow-on talks on missiles and its support for regional militias.