On July 6, Saudi Arabia announced its support for the water rights of both Egypt and Sudan and backed a solution to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute, which has engaged both the Arab League and the African Union. This statement, which came just one day after Ethiopia began its second filling of the dam’s reservoir, added to the atmosphere of rising tension between Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia. In June, 40,000 Ethiopian migrants returned home from Saudi Arabia in a two-week period, as they were forced to contend with a “hostile Saudi policy” toward Ethiopian guest workers.

Saudi Arabia’s willingness to undermine its relationship with Ethiopia by openly supporting Egypt and Sudan in the GERD dispute can be explained by two factors. First, this position aligns with Saudi Arabia’s broader principle of Arab solidarity during regional security crises. Abdalla Mosa Altayer, the chairperson of the London-based Gulf Futures Center, told Al-Monitor Saudi Arabia’s Arab League membership forces it to align with other Arab states. This explains Saudi Arabia’s support for Egypt during the Doha meetings on the GERD and Arab League efforts to adjudicate the dam dispute in the UN Security Council. Altayer also noted Saudi public opinion strongly favors an alignment with Egypt in the GERD dispute.

Second, Saudi Arabia’s more assertive role in the GERD dispute will bolster its status as a security guarantor in the Red Sea. Although Saudi Arabia became the leader of a Red Sea security coalition in January 2020, it has played a minimal role in preventing an Egypt-Ethiopia conflict, which would destabilize the entire region. Saudi Arabia’s inaction is conspicuous, as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has leveraged its even-keeled approach to mediate between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, and Qatar recently hosted an Arab League meeting on the GERD dispute. Through its recent statements, Saudi Arabia can upstage Qatar as the leading supporter of Arab solidarity in the GERD dispute and demonstrate that it is no longer delegating Red Sea security to the UAE.

Although Saudi Arabia’s expanded diplomatic role in the GERD dispute is beneficial for its prestige, Riyadh is unlikely to emulate the UAE’s mediation efforts. Talal al-Faisal, a junior royal and Saudi businessman, told Al-Monitor Saudi Arabia will not pursue a mediation role in the GERD dispute unless it believes it will be successful. Although Saudi Arabia played a pivotal role in facilitating the 2018 Ethiopia-Eritrea peace agreement in Jeddah, Faisal believes Riyadh would not be seen as an unbiased mediator in the GERD dispute and “can’t play as big a role as it did between Ethiopia and Eritrea.”