DIYARBAKIR, Turkey — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent visit to Diyarbakir, the central city of Turkey’s mainly Kurdish southeast, is largely seen as an effort to salvage his Kurdish vote ahead of potential early elections, as pollsters report a downtick in his popular support, both among Kurds and across the country.

Erdogan has enjoyed solid popularity among conservative Kurds, drawing mostly on his Islamic credentials, and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been the only real rival in the southeast of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), the standard bearer of the Kurdish movement in Turkey. He had won much credit also for settlement talks with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), the armed outfit that has fought Ankara since 1984 and is designated as a terrorist group. But since the talks collapsed in 2015, he has shifted to a hard-line nationalist agenda, marked by a ferocious crackdown on the PKK and the HDP, and aligned with the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to bolster his electoral fortunes. 

Erdogan’s trip to Diyarbakir July 9 — the first in 2½ years — was preceded by speculation he might be bracing to revive the peace process to make amends with the Kurds amid growing anticipation he might bring the next elections forward from 2023 before Turkey’s economic woes erode further his popular support. HDP parliament member Erol Katircioglu stoked the speculation ahead of the visit, saying the HDP would be ready to mend fences with Erdogan should he revive the settlement process.

In the streets of Diyarbakir, however, few seemed optimistic. Most residents who spoke to Al-Monitor said they had no big expectations from the visit, though one shopkeeper insisted the Kurds should continue to back Erdogan in acknowledgement of his past efforts to resolve the Kurdish issue.