Turkey is positioning itself as a stakeholder in the prospective settlement process in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, having tipped the balance in favor of its Azeri allies by providing them with military advisers, technical assistance and armed drones.

Eyeing a foothold in the Caucuses, Ankara aims to influence the array of solutions to the conflict, arguing that the current mediators — the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), co-chaired by Russia, France and the United States — have failed to achieve any progress since 1994. Much like a surrogate of the Azeri government, Ankara has conditioned a cease-fire on “Armenia’s withdrawal from the territories it occupies” and questioned the merits of the Minsk Group. Azeri President Ilham Aliyev asserted Oct. 6 that Turkey “should be part of the settlement process” in Nagorno-Karabakh, while praising the efficiency of Turkish drones. 

Based on the Turkish-Azeri messages, one could make the following deductions on their calculus in the conflict:

The objective of Azerbaijan and Turkey is a full military seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh, not only the seven surrounding occupied districts, for a number of factors. Above all, Russia has adopted a very cautious attitude in the Caucasus, burdened with other conflicts in Syria, Libya, Ukraine and Crimea. The United States, meanwhile, is preoccupied with its presidential elections, while the European Union has lost its diplomatic weight and Armenia has failed to muster the desired support from the international community.