The assassination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in a Jan. 3 drone strike carried out by the United States sent shock waves throughout the region. Those who argued that Tehran would take its time to retaliate proved wrong. On the night of Jan. 8, Iran launched more than a dozen missiles on Iraqi bases housing US forces. Several struck the Ain al-Assad base west of Baghdad. Several others landed in an open field near an air base in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. Nobody was killed.

The attack was seen, however, as a clear message from Tehran about the potential punishment Iraqis would face if they pursue their relations with the United States. Baghdad’s immediate reaction already had been to ask US forces to leave. Iraq’s caretaker prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, joined the chorus of Shiite Iraqis saying it was time for the Americans to depart. Meanwhile, Iraq’s Kurds see US forces as protection as much against the Islamic State as they do against Baghdad and Iran and other potential foes. 

The Kurds are in a bind as they face pressure from Tehran and Washington to pick sides. But while Baghdad has played lip service to Iran, the central government is just as loathe as the Kurds to get caught in the middle.

Abdul Mahdi was in Erbil last week to enlist Kurdish support for his tottering government, which has been hit by a wave of massive street protests followed by the deaths of Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units who was also targeted in the drone attack. Abdul Mahdi met with Nechirvan Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), who took the lead role in recent negotiations with Baghdad to resolve a long-running dispute over sharing revenues from oil and the Iraqi budget. Barzani has also been invited to Washington and Tehran.