Almost three years have passed since the onset of the deployment of what the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) nicknamed “Mabam,” a Hebrew acronym for "the campaign between the wars," or "war between the wars." The goals of the campaign were well defined and precise: to prevent Iran from entrenching itself in the Syrian space and to stop Hezbollah from strengthening itself via Iranian resources. At the top of the list was the “guided precision missile project.” At the beginning, Israel was extremely careful not to refer to this campaign openly. But as time went on, Israeli officials — from the air force commander to the chief of staff to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — began to brag about the number of assaults attributed to Israel in the Syrian space, and afterward in Iraqi territory as well.

As of this point in time, it seems that this campaign between the wars is dying down; its time has passed. Reports of mysterious assaults against weapons convoys or infrastructure facilities identified with Iran have almost totally disappeared. This doesn’t mean that such an attack is impossible; almost certainly, sporadic attacks of this type will still appear here and there, but the chart does not lie: According to all the signs, the campaign’s era that we have known since 2016 is coming to an end. Unfortunately, there is no chance that peace will reign instead. All the sides need to hope that the campaign between the wars will not be replaced by a full-scale war between Israel and Iran.

“The ‘campaign between the wars’ policy has reached the end of the road,” a former high-ranking Israeli security source told Al-Monitor this week, on condition of anonymity. “There are several cumulative reasons for this: First, the Iranians have moved their activities from Syria to Lebanon. Israel hasn’t attacked Lebanon for more than 13 years now. Second, the messages sent by Russia have become problematic for Israel. Third, Iranian self-confidence has grown due to American passivity and to Trump’s hasty abandonment of the region. Israel understands that this campaign can only descend into war, and it is unclear if there will be someone in Jerusalem who would make such a decision now.”