When Lebanese President Michel Aoun paid an official visit March 26 to Moscow, some observers thought it indicated Lebanon’s “shift into Russia’s orbit.” The speculation progressed a month later, when a high-ranking Lebanese delegation visited Arabia-Expo 2019 in Moscow. The delegation was led by freshly appointed Minister of Telecommunications Mohammed Choucair, who also heads Lebanon's economic organizations.

It seemed that, in addition to the Syrian refugee issue — on which Russia and Lebanon have worked together for some time — Beirut was interested in gaining economic dividends from Russia's influence in Syria.

As far as Lebanese politics are concerned, Russia has worked to establish an image as a neutral player — unlike Iran, which supports Hezbollah and many local Shiite Muslims; Saudi Arabia, which backs up Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Sunni Muslims; and Western European powers that favor Aoun and the Christians.

Russia has sought to monetize that perception by entering Lebanon’s energy market. Russia’s private Novatek company is part of a consortium with France’s Total and Italy’s ENI for drilling oil on the eastern Mediterranean shelf, while Russia’s state-owned Rosneft holds a 20-year license to modernize an oil storage facility in Lebanon's seaport of Tripoli. In return, Lebanese authorities may ask for Russia’s political assistance in getting access to lucrative reconstruction contracts in Syria.