The usual pace of the fight for influence in eastern Syria was altered when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raised the stakes and US President Donald Trump decided to withdraw US troops from the country shortly thereafter. Now, all interested sides have to demonstrate their ambitions once again and attempt to gain control over areas they seek to influence — in a brand-new configuration.

It is not clear how well Russia, Iran and Turkey were prepared for the announced withdrawal of US forces. Due to the possibility of a vacuum appearing, the Astana format guarantors of the resolution in Syria may face additional challenges and burdens in the geopolitical and economic realms. The void temporarily left in the trans-Euphrates region could potentially be settled by the active involvement of the Arab states that are interested in restraining Iranian and Turkish ambitions. Certain Russian experts cautiously point out that Russia may make a deal on this with the Gulf nations. This argument suggests that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi influenced the opposition in Syria's southwestern de-escalation zone in exchange for the restoration of diplomatic contacts with Damascus and Moscow’s permission to expand their presence in eastern Syria. Previously, Emirati and Saudi delegations repeatedly visited the areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

As reported first by the Israeli website DEBKAfile and, later on, the Turkish daily Yeni Safak, representatives of security services from Egypt and UAE visited Manbij, a city claimed both by pro-regime and pro-Turkish forces. Both Egypt and the UAE believe that Ankara’s ambitions in the region should be restrained. Earlier, Cairo had refused to deploy its troops to Syria, preferring to provide a venue for the negotiations between the Syrian opposition and Russia within the Astana process. However, after Trump announced the withdrawal of American forces from Syria, Egyptians reportedly became mediators between Damascus and the Kurds.

Obviously, the contacts between security services and the limited forces from Arab countries deployed in Syria are unlikely to deter a potential Turkish assault. At most, these factors can guarantee that the SDF’s political project will survive and that its Arab component will be further consolidated after the government forces take over the area. Sources in the opposition claim that Russia has already suggested it will deploy military police on the east bank of Euphrates to block the advance of pro-Turkish troops farther into Syria.