Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Dec. 17 ratcheted up his oft-repeated threat to launch a new military operation in Syria by adding the words “at any moment.” Erdogan also claims US President Donald Trump “gave a positive response” to starting the operation, though US special envoy for Syria James Jeffrey said the United States is united in its opposition and the Pentagon warned Ankara against any military move.  

So, even as Turkey, Russia and Iran agreed Dec. 18 on a committee to craft a Syrian constitution, it's quite likely that Ankara is indeed planning a military campaign east of the Euphrates aimed at weakening Kurdish militants. Counterintuitively, it could benefit both Russia and the United States.

Turkey’s leadership has long been eyeing the possibility of a military campaign in the area where US-led international forces are deployed, though Erdogan has specifically said he will not target US troops. Erdogan reaffirmed his intentions to fight Kurdish “terrorists” to appeal to his domestic audience and demonstrate the continuity of his foreign policy.

For instance, he mentioned the potential operation in eastern Syria during the final press conference Oct. 27 of an Istanbul summit with Russia, France and Germany. Three days later, he promised members of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) that he would rid the area in the trans-Euphrates region of militant Kurdish groups. Some Kurdish groups there are backed by the United States in the continuing fight against the remnants of the Islamic State (IS).